As markets digest a steady flow of earnings reports, trade updates, and economic signals, we continue to focus on identifying opportunities while managing risks thoughtfully.
At Leisure Capital Management, our priority remains helping you stay on track toward your long-term goals—especially when market environments can feel unnerving. We are happy to report that last week’s stronger-than-expected earnings, signs of easing trade tensions, and falling market volatility offered some welcome and encouraging signals. Still, much of the available economic data reminds us that a strong dose of uncertainty remains.
Here’s a snapshot of what we’re seeing across equities, fixed income, and the economy—and how we’re thinking about the months ahead.
Equities: strong earnings & renewed optimism
The stock market saw a notable rebound last week, fueled by better-than-expected corporate earnings and optimism around US-China trade negotiations.
The S&P 500 rose approximately 4.6%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq jumped 6.7%, with growth stocks outperforming value after several months of lagging.
Although no official trade deal has been reached yet, encouraging comments from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent—highlighting the unsustainability of current tariff levels—sparked hopes of eventual de-escalation.
Volatility has dropped sharply, with the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) falling from the April 7th intra-day peak of 60 to just above 25. However, the VIX remains above its historical average of 19.6, reflecting ongoing caution among investors.
Earnings season has been a key bright spot:
A few tech heavyweights like workflow software maker ServiceNow have indicated that demand for AI-related solutions remains robust.
Alphabet (Google’s parent) and semiconductor leaders Texas Instruments and Lam Research posted strong results and provided positive guidance.
Corporations seem more willing than expected to offer forward-looking guidance—despite lingering trade uncertainties.
Although it’s still relatively early in Q1 earnings season, 178 S&P 500 companies have reported, with year-over-year revenue growth of ~4.0% and earnings growth of ~17.5%.
Even with these examples of positive earnings growth, many numbers have experienced downward revisions since April 1. The reason: the lingering economic uncertainty caused by topsy-turvy trade policy news has made it near-to-impossible for companies to offer accurate earnings estimates or forward guidance.
This week (April 28–May 2) should shed some new light on where things stand today, with four of the ‘Magnificent 7’ companies (Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon) reporting earnings, along with the majority of S&P 500 constituents. It should be an interesting week!
Fixed Income: easing volatility & emerging opportunities
On the fixed income side, US Treasury yields finally found some solid footing last week to wrap up a wildly turbulent April:
The 10-year Treasury yield began the month around 4.17%, dropped to 3.99%, spiked to 4.49%, and finished near 4.23%.
As volatility eased, yields declined and spreads tightened across sectors, delivering positive returns for fixed income investors.
What’s to come?
While strong economic fundamentals persist, tariffs and trade uncertainty pose risks that could eventually compress consumer spending and business investment.
At LCM, we continue to emphasize high-quality credit selection as wider risk premiums could create even more attractive buying opportunities later this year.
Municipal bonds are expected to regain momentum as supply and demand dynamics stabilize, offering continued value to tax-sensitive investors.
Our eyes are on the economic signals—and you
There continues to be a major push-and-pull taking place between the measurable, objective ‘hard’ data that has yet to indicate a distressed US economy, and the ‘soft’ data—including consumer and investor surveys and sentiment indicators—which points to growing concerns about future growth. Only one thing is certain: a quicker resolution to the ongoing trade spat would help smooth the path ahead!
We are paying close attention to the economic signals, all of which help shape our strategy. And we are monitoring developments closely and adjusting portfolios where needed to stay aligned with your objectives. Our goal, always, is to give you information and insight to help you move through market uncertainty with confidence.
As always, if you have any questions at all about your portfolio or your broader financial plan, please reach out. We are here to help!
